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Playing the Preakness Stakes
05-17-2013 --

Playing the Preakness Stakes

By Tom Amello, Trackfacts

How will you pull money from the Preakness Stakes betting pools? After reviewing Orb’s victory over nineteen rivals in the 139th running, after reading the words of expert analysts about that race and the field for the Preakness, after studying the past performances of the Preakness field, how will you turn opinions into wagers? The fact is that far too many words will be written about deciphering the race and its combatants, while very little will be written about betting the race. The tentative field is below with the DRF’s Mike Watchmaker’s odds.

Preakness Stakes (G1), Saturday, May 18, 2013

Purse: $1,000,000; 1 3/16 miles

Post	Horse	Trainer	Jockey	Watchmaker Odds	ML Odds
	1-Orb	C. McGaughey III	J. Rosario	6-5	Even
	2-Goldencents	D. O'Neill	K. Krigger	6-1	8-1
	4-Departing	A. Stall Jr.	B. Hernandez Jr.	8-1	6-1
	5-Mylute	T. Amoss	R. Napravnik	8-1	5-1
	9-Itsmyluckyday	E. Plesa Jr.	J. Velazquez	10-1	10-1
	7-Will Take Charge	D.W. Lukas	M. Smith	10-1	12-1
	8-Govenor Charlie	B. Baffert	M. Garcia	12-1	12-1
	6-Oxbow	D.W. Lukas	G. Stevens	12-1	15-1
	3-Titletown Five	D.W. Lukas	J. Leparoux	30-1	30-1
					From DRF

First, Orb looms a solid, legitimate short-priced Preakness favorite. In the Derby, Orb proved the best horse, finishing powerfully over a sloppy track he handled well while benefiting from a hot pace, a solid ride and a trouble-free trip. He has shown versatility since stretching out in distance, tactical speed to be closer to more moderate fractions,  the ability to out kick rivals while covering more ground in the run to the wire, and he posted a strong workout at Belmont Park before being vanned to Pimlico. Additionally, trainer Shug McGaughey’s stakes runners are proven capable of holding sharp form through a series of stakes appearances. Remember, Easy Goer ran second to Sunday Silence in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, and then went on the take the Belmont Stakes. Is there a Sunday Silence in this Preakness field? Which pools are best if you believe Orb is likely to repeat his Derby effort?

 

Second, beaten rivals from the Derby either raced well while failing or failed to fire. Oxbow chased the strong pace while saving ground along the good inside paths before tiring…can this heavily raced colt rebound in a more moderate pace scenario? Will Take Charge was moving well with rival Orb when stopped cold behind a tiring Verrazano…was he going to out kick Orb or pass other rivals late? Goldencents failed to handle the track, backing out of the race early under Derby rookie Kevin Krigger…if you liked this one going in, can you draw a line through the race? Mylute also benefited from the strong pace to finish well under Rosie Napravnik…can he improve enough to threaten without a similar pace?  Itsmyluckyday raced much like Goldencents and worked well recently at Monmouth Park…can he, too, be forgiven his last? If Orb fails to repeat, which of these are most likely to turn the tables and at what odds?

 

Third, there are new shooters. Departing competed in the Louisiana Derby, a race some have labeled a “key” Derby prep, before cruising in the Illinois Derby…is this colt a legitimate threat? Bob Baffert’s Govenor Charlie developed foot issues and missed works prior to the Derby…if right, this colt will be part of an early pace with Titletown Five, Oxbow and Goldencents that should be no worse than honest and contested…which of theses will be the controlling, dominant and surviving speed? What odds make any of these interesting enough to bet with any confidence to upset or run in-the-money?

 

Fourth, pretend the heavy favorite was not entered in the race! How would you handicap and rank the field without Orb? Itsmyluckyday, a horse from whom many expected better in the Derby, might offer the best value or be overbet. He has a solid foundation, tactical speed, owns fast speed figures, finished behind Orb in the Florida Derby, switches to top jock John Velazquez, and worked well at Monmouth for this. Departing looks best of the new shooters. Mylute raced wide, finished well, will be running late and could improve some under the very good Rosie Napravnik. Will Take Charge returned in the Derby from a March 16 layoff, was stopped cold in the midst of a good late move, showed little run after the trouble but should be more fit and running late. Oxbow might be the class stalking speed under Gary Steven. Goldencents relaxed to beat a weak Santa Anita Derby field (the talented Flashback came up injured). He must do the same or face significant pace pressure from Vyjack, Govenor Charlie and Titletown Five.

  

How will you pull money from the Preakness betting pools? Favorite Orb will be too short for win bets, and Exactas with the more logical contenders might be short-prices as well. If you prefer Orb to win, he is best pursued in the $.10 Superfectas and $1.00 Trifecta pools. For example, use Orb heavily on top in those pools and save with him to run second. Bet multiples of your strongest opinion and save with the longest price horses to upset others. One play might single Orb x 4 horses x 7 horses x all horses for $.10 costing $16.80 each time. Then, single Orb x 7 horses x 4 horses x all for $.10 costing $16.80. Single Orb x all x 4 horses x 7 horses for $.10 costing 16.80…for a total of $50.40. Then, use Orb second with this same number of horses filling the other three slots for another $50.40. Orb first and second in $1.00 Trifectas with these same 4 and 7 horses in the remaining slots should offer value as well, but will cost more.

 

If you have a strong opinion against Orb to win the Preakness, bet the horse or horses you prefer in the win pool at acceptable odds (5-1 or more), “key” them in exactas over Orb, the most likely horse to run second if he runs his race but fails to win. Box those horses in exactas should Orb finish third or worse. Getting Orb to finish off-the-board is unlikely but, of course, possible, which is why the Exacta pools may offer the best return.

 

How will you get money out of the Preakness Stakes betting pools?

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