Playing the Preakness Stakes
05-17-2013 --
Playing the Preakness Stakes
How will you pull
money from the Preakness Stakes betting pools? After reviewing Orb’s victory
over nineteen rivals in the 139th running, after reading the words
of expert analysts about that race and the field for the Preakness, after
studying the past performances of the Preakness field, how will you turn
opinions into wagers? The fact is that far too many words will be written about
deciphering the race and its combatants, while very little will be written
about betting the race. The tentative field is below with the DRF’s Mike
Watchmaker’s odds.
Preakness Stakes (G1), Saturday, May 18, 2013
Purse: $1,000,000; 1 3/16 miles
Post
|
Horse
|
Trainer
|
Jockey
|
Watchmaker Odds
|
ML Odds
|
|
|
C. McGaughey III
|
J. Rosario
|
6-5
|
Even
|
|
|
D. O'Neill
|
K. Krigger
|
6-1
|
8-1
|
|
4-Departing
|
A. Stall Jr.
|
B. Hernandez Jr.
|
8-1
|
6-1
|
|
|
T. Amoss
|
R. Napravnik
|
8-1
|
5-1
|
|
|
E. Plesa Jr.
|
J. Velazquez
|
10-1
|
10-1
|
|
|
D.W. Lukas
|
M. Smith
|
10-1
|
12-1
|
|
|
B. Baffert
|
M. Garcia
|
12-1
|
12-1
|
|
|
D.W. Lukas
|
G. Stevens
|
12-1
|
15-1
|
|
3-Titletown Five
|
D.W. Lukas
|
J. Leparoux
|
30-1
|
30-1
|
|
|
|
|
|
From DRF
|
First, Orb looms a
solid, legitimate short-priced Preakness favorite. In the Derby, Orb proved the best horse, finishing
powerfully over a sloppy track he handled well while benefiting from a hot
pace, a solid ride and a trouble-free trip. He has shown versatility since
stretching out in distance, tactical speed to be closer to more moderate
fractions, the ability to out kick rivals
while covering more ground in the run to the wire, and he posted a strong
workout at Belmont Park before being vanned to Pimlico. Additionally, trainer
Shug McGaughey’s stakes runners are proven capable of holding sharp form through
a series of stakes appearances. Remember, Easy Goer ran second to
Sunday Silence in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness, and then went on the take the Belmont Stakes. Is there a
Sunday Silence in this Preakness field? Which pools are best if you believe Orb
is likely to repeat his Derby
effort?
Second, beaten rivals
from the Derby
either raced well while failing or failed to fire. Oxbow chased the strong pace
while saving ground along the good inside paths before tiring…can this heavily
raced colt rebound in a more moderate pace scenario? Will Take Charge was
moving well with rival Orb when stopped cold behind a tiring Verrazano…was he
going to out kick Orb or pass other rivals late? Goldencents failed to handle
the track, backing out of the race early under Derby rookie Kevin Krigger…if you liked this
one going in, can you draw a line through the race? Mylute also benefited from
the strong pace to finish well under Rosie Napravnik…can he improve enough to
threaten without a similar pace? Itsmyluckyday raced much like Goldencents and worked
well recently at Monmouth
Park…can he, too, be
forgiven his last? If Orb fails to repeat, which of these are most likely to
turn the tables and at what odds?
Third, there are new
shooters. Departing competed in the Louisiana Derby, a race some have labeled a “key” Derby
prep, before cruising in the Illinois Derby…is this colt a legitimate
threat? Bob Baffert’s Govenor Charlie developed foot issues and missed works
prior to the Derby…if right, this colt will be part of an early pace with
Titletown Five, Oxbow and Goldencents that should be no worse than honest and
contested…which of theses will be the controlling, dominant and surviving
speed? What odds make any of these interesting enough to bet with any
confidence to upset or run in-the-money?
Fourth, pretend the
heavy favorite was not entered in the race! How would you handicap and rank the
field without Orb? Itsmyluckyday, a horse from whom many expected better in the
Derby, might offer the best value or be overbet. He has a solid foundation, tactical speed,
owns fast speed figures, finished behind Orb in the Florida
Derby, switches to top jock John Velazquez, and
worked well at Monmouth for this. Departing looks best of the new shooters.
Mylute raced wide, finished well, will be running late and could improve some under the very good Rosie
Napravnik. Will Take Charge returned in the Derby from a March 16 layoff, was
stopped cold in the midst of a good late move, showed little run after the
trouble but should be more fit and running late. Oxbow might be the class stalking speed
under Gary Steven. Goldencents relaxed to beat a weak Santa Anita Derby field (the talented
Flashback came up injured). He must do the same or face significant pace pressure
from Vyjack, Govenor Charlie and Titletown Five.
How will you pull
money from the Preakness betting pools? Favorite Orb will be too short for win
bets, and Exactas with the more logical contenders might be short-prices as
well. If you prefer Orb to win, he is best pursued in the $.10 Superfectas and
$1.00 Trifecta pools. For example, use Orb heavily on top in those pools and
save with him to run second. Bet multiples of your strongest opinion and save
with the longest price horses to upset others. One play might single Orb x 4
horses x 7 horses x all horses for $.10 costing $16.80 each time. Then, single
Orb x 7 horses x 4 horses x all for $.10 costing $16.80. Single Orb x all x 4
horses x 7 horses for $.10 costing 16.80…for a total of $50.40. Then, use Orb
second with this same number of horses filling the other three slots for
another $50.40. Orb first and second in $1.00 Trifectas with these same 4 and 7
horses in the remaining slots should offer value as well, but will cost more.
If you have a strong
opinion against Orb to win the Preakness, bet the horse or horses you prefer in
the win pool at acceptable odds (5-1 or more), “key” them in exactas over Orb,
the most likely horse to run second if he runs his race but fails to win. Box
those horses in exactas should Orb finish third or worse. Getting Orb to finish
off-the-board is unlikely but, of course, possible, which is why the Exacta
pools may offer the best return.
How will you get
money out of the Preakness Stakes betting pools?