Thoroughbred Racing Fan Association, Inc.
Thoroughbred Racing Fan Association, Inc.
TRIPLE CROWN RACES CHANGE
6/11/2023
Fifty years ago, to the day, June 9th in the Belmont Stakes (1973) Secretariat showed the world the prowess of the Thoroughbred athlete. It could have been an equine clinic. He broke the track record for a mile and a half race on the dirt course winning by 31 lengths, also a new record. He so impressed in his two previous wins in the Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes that only three horses took him on that day. Yet 1970s was a rare decade for horseracing with 3 horses accomplishing the feat in that decade ---Secretariat (1973), Seattle Slew (1977) and Affirmed (1978). A 3-peat had only occurred before in 1930s—Gallant Fox (1930), Omaha (1935) and War Admiral (1937). Sandwiched in between, the 1940s holds the record with four--- Whirlaway (1941), Count Fleet (1943), Assault (1946) and Citation (1948). Clustering and the gaps in wins raise many questions about the timing of the Triple Crown Races.
The 1970s sparked the draught in Triple Crown wins. Three decades elapsed without a Triple Crown winner. Science has not conclusively answered why. Handicappers speculate it is breeding where modern competitors are bred for speed and shortened racing careers to hasten them to stud duty where the financial rewards shame purse money. The latter is so valuable that races are determined more by indicators of stud fees and not racing prowess like Secretariat showed us fifty years ago. The last Triple Crown winner, Justify, ran only six times and never as a 2-year-old. It seemed that he didn’t like to race, a contradiction to his breed. After winning the Belmont Stakes in 2018 he hormonally strutted off to stud duty leaving racing and fans behind like a rocket taking off for the moon.
Compared to Justify, Secretariat was not only a superstar, but a workhorse running 9 times at two and 12 times at 3. He rarely shied away from a race, As a 2-year-old his races were separated by an average of just over 15 days. As a 3-year-old his races were separated by an average of 16 days. Justify, racing only at 3, spaced his races on the average of 22 days apart. These data suggest a decline in stamina from 1973 to 2018 which can be considered a reduction in quality of the races run.
Another problem racing confronts shows lack of quality in our races. The connections of the horses in Triple Crown races seem to see the Triple Crown races as three separate and independent, grade one races not a set of races. Understandable, winning one of the Triple Crown races can inflate stud fees beyond reason. Reviewing the current performance of the superstar Flightline pulls back the curtain on the goal of modern racing. Flightline earned $4.5 million during his two years of racing. His stud fee for 2023 is set at $200,000. The gross revenue for stud duty in 2023 is estimated at between $20–$30 million. Why race more than you need with the disparity in revenue between racing and breeding? It seems racing is becoming more a business than a sport.
All of this opens the thinking why the three Triple Crown races are run so close together? Randy Moss, analyst for NBC and Guest Host on Thoroughbred Daily News’ Writer’s Room, has suggested that spreading out the Triple Crown races would improve them and give horses time to rest between races. It would encourage more Derby horses to enter and run in the remaining two legs, enhancing the competitiveness of the races. The larger field would lead to more exciting races and betting opportunities. That’s a “win-win-win-win” for horse connections, tracks, fans, and horses. Current breeding models for less stamina and more speed could be mitigated by this adjustment with more time to rest and restore. The 3-year-old crop could endure more races before stud duty. One step at a time.
Although it would change the record book for Triple Crown Races, it might be needed to mitigate for the newer breeding approaches.
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