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BREEDERS’ CUP HANDICAPPING NOISE

Seven days from today will open the most magnificent Thoroughbred racing seen this year. Since last fall the connections of the best horses have been racing them to prove if their horse is good enough to join a Breeders’ Cup race. The white boards in barns across the world have been charting the course that will prepare and position their equine investment to run and win the selected race. As the races approach trainers will be looking at all the races to see who have earned a spot by way of the “Win and You’re In”, quality of field and which slots remain available. This weekend will be their last chance to hone their work and ready their horses for the draw on Monday, October 28th beginning at 4:30 pm (PT).

A scan of the internet for handicapping sources overwhelms. There are too many “know-it-all” sites to count. Some sound so valid you wonder about them. Angles like past history, winning jockeys and trainers, recent performances and even AI selections are out there. The tone of most is how you can win the most money using their system or analytical approach. As a horse player for a long time, I wonder how many of these prognosticators have significant annual net winners playing the Breeders Cup over the past 10 years. Or is the best way to describe their success is that “even a blind squirrel can find a nut once in a while.” Caution is advised.

Most fans have watched the major races since last year keeping notes on performance by horses. Documenting which horses would have won but because of bad rides, postposition, trouble, or track bias they didn’t. Good start, especially for their next race but not like for many future races. This statistic is synthesized in the Daily Racing Forms Quick Sheets Key race charts. Sometimes, like races in the Saratoga summer meet or the Keeneland spring meet these data can be extrapolated to the Breeders’ Cup months into the future. Even so you need more than that and a lot of luck to win with this approach alone.

This next week will offer a cacophony of opinions from every wannbe handicapper with a social media platform. Each will preach why they are the best and you should buy their picks. Saratoga is my home track. At the entry gates are dozens of people selling their picks for the day’s racing card. Most have slick and inviting names for their selection sheets. The touts selling them for commission talk about winning percentages but rarely about losing percentages. Do you know who does the handicapping for these sheets? In these and other handicapping services, even newspapers, remember the handicapping to meet printing and publication deadline is done days before the race is run. Things like late scratches, weather conditions and jockey changes are not available at that time which weakens even the best handicappers’ picks.

When I began to learn to handicap years ago performance and preparation data were hard to find. Most often backstretch folks knew things those of us on the front side putting our money down didn’t know. That is changing with the proliferation of professional handicapping services. There are clockers watching every morning workout and documenting for a fee what they see. There are services like the Ragozin or Thorograph sheets that have an expansive network of data collectors building long-term databases on every horse running. None of these have it right all the time. Thorograph cautions their picks by giving odds ranges needed to play their pick.

Having said all of this be careful who you pick to help you with your handicapping for the 2024 Breeders Cup. The best advice is to follow your own thinking and synthesize what is out there. Pick your races. Handicapping all the races over two days is too much to do. You may even have a special distance, gender, or racing surface with which you have had success. Stick with it. Rarely a Breeders’ Cup wager will produce a life-changing bet. Preservation of bankroll may be a better goal. Our sport of Thoroughbred racing should be about entertainment and fun, not about getting rich. As I have said before I do not know any handicapper that died rich, unless having a heart attack after winning a 6-figure Pick Six. Your guess is as good as anyone else’s.

Good luck and enjoy the Breeders’ Cup.